Some thoughts on… Learning from 2020

When discussing 20/20 vision, we think of people who have strong visual acuity.  Although we rarely can visualize the future, hindsight is definitely 2020, i.e. we can clearly peer into past actions this year and learn from them.

 

With 2020 being a year that most people are happy to leave behind, I was wondering what insights I acquired from the year to take forward into the next one.

 

First, it was a good year to be working, especially if it was a job that you enjoy and gave you meaning.  In a year when millions of people became unemployed pushing towards financial instability, it was sobering to have a position. For those of us privileged enough to work from home, balancing the upside of no commutes with the downside of endless engagement on screens, forced reflection on the value of the work.  Even without live student interaction, I realized how lucky I am to be a teacher who finds the work fulfilling. 

 

It was also a good year to get to know your community.  Working from home meant that I saw my neighbors more often as they walked the dog, trimmed the hedges, fixed their cars.  Talking to live human beings (even if from 6 feet away) meant more given all the screen interactions.  They essentially became additional work colleagues, in the sense, that they were the source of “water cooler” conversations – what shows were being watched, recipes cooked, news followed.  We had a summer socially-distant block party, received freshly baked sourdough bread, and even got a bag of clams dropped to our door.

 

Finally, it was a good year to have our voices expressed.   From Black Lives Matter, #MeToo, and the national elections, more people were involved in our democratic system.  Over 2/3 of the eligible population voted, the highest percentage as well as total number of votes for the past 120 years. Most critically, the younger generation (aged 18-30) is more engaged as they push for change which will impact on their lives.  Personally, I see the students more interested in social, economic and political issues, e.g. a former student discussed with me the economic stimulus program for the Columbia Political Review.  All this engagement is a beacon for positive, future change. 

 

2020 was a rough year in many ways, but it was one with powerful memories of a life lived. And as Oscar Wilde might have said, the only thing worse than living through a tough year is not living through the year at all.  I am thankful we’re still here. 

 

Happy New Year everyone!

 

Some thoughts on... Winning Graciously

What an incredible election ride!  The results are being finalized, as States validate election results, resolve disputes, and certify results by December 8 at which time the Electoral College will be declared.  With 306 electoral votes, all indications show that the winner will be Joseph Biden.  Yet a celebration of the results seems oddly misplaced as over 73 million people (47.2% of the electorate) voted for President Trump.  

 

How can individuals who supported Biden win graciously?  Let’s look at some supporting facts on the elections.  

 

First, since elections are decentralized by States, there is a resilience to the process and in the results. There were five states – Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – that supported Trump in 2016, and that Biden was able to win in 2020.  This gave Biden a larger electoral victory than President Trump had in 2016.

 

Second, many more ballots were cast this year than in previous years, which makes the choice even clearer.  Examining the popular vote, Biden is estimated to have won over 79 million votes, which is 6 million more votes than Trump.  As a reference point, this is more votes than the entire population of Denmark.  

 

In the three swing states that Trump won in 2016 which gave him the electoral victory – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – he won them by around 80,000 votes total.  In other words, he received about 80,000 more votes than his opponent in those three states. This year it is estimated that Biden won those three states by over 250,000 votes (see table below), and Biden additionally secured the two states of Georgia and Arizona.

 

	Trump Vote Margin (2016)	Biden Vote Margin (2020 est)
Michigan	10,704	155,629
Pennsylvania	44,292	81,185
Wisconsin	22,748	20,608
Total votes won	77,744	176,237

 

Third, bipartisan collaboration at polling sites leads to a more equitable process. In my experience at the polling site in Southampton, NY, 12 poll workers were assigned so that there could be equal number of individuals from the two parties.  With about 800 people voting at our site, it was inspiring to see everyone working together to keep the process fair and verifiable.  Even in states where the vote count was close, like Georgia, we see the Republican Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, defending the process and the vote count, honoring the tireless work of all the election officials (the work is exhausting).

 

Candidates are legally allowed to ask for recounts in states with close counts.  But this year, given the vote margins, the results will not change.  The President has filed for election results to be invalidated by the courts due to alleged voter fraud.  Given the lack of any convincing evidence, the vast majority of these requests have already been denied.  Even the administration’s Director of Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security, who was hired by the President to ensure the safety of the elections from interference, declared on November 13 that the process was the most “secure in American history”.   Since that statement, he has been fired. 

 

Although within the bounds of the law, the sitting President’s persistent contesting of the results erodes the reputation and stability of our election process.  If I were to tell my students that there was widespread cheating on a final exam, without any proof, it would not reflect poorly on the grading of the exam.  It would reflect poorly on me.  It would also sow mistrust in the class, as some students will inevitably believe the falsehood and blame their colleagues.

 

This erosion of trust is occurring across the country as likely millions of Americans believe that the election was rigged.   It will take time to rebuild trust, but my belief is that it will happen.  We have done it before, as when the nation moved on from the 2000 election of Bush and Gore when the Supreme Court stopped the counting of ballots in Florida, giving the electoral win to Bush.

 

As individuals, one way we can help restore trust is to talk to each other.  Not just a polite conversation, but a conversation of implications and results.  That is why I am encouraging each of you to reach out to someone who voted differently from you.   Invite them to engage, but don’t force a conversation that may not be welcome.  Along those lines, here are three questions I ask, with alternate wording depending on the situation.  I have put my personal answers to the questions as well.

 

Question 1: What are you most worried about happening to the country if Trump had won (v. when Biden wins)?

-       WN answer: My concern is that over the past 4 years, President Trump has consistently put his financial and personal needs above the welfare of the country.  I do not believe these actions are reflective of a good leader.  I would not want the head of an organization, the head of a company or the head of a family putting their own desires above the welfare of the people they are leading.  I do not expect this behavior from the head of the country either and it brings down the moral authority of the Office of President.  

 

Question 2: How would you be personally impacted if Trump had been elected President (v. How will you be affected by a Biden Presidency)?

-       WN answer: From a financial perspective, 4 more years of a Trump Presidency are unlikely to have positive effects.  Most likely the economy will continue to falter if there are not sufficient measures instituted to contain the pandemic and control skyrocketing healthcare costs.  From a social perspective, the President’s divisive language will further marginalize different segments of the population.  As a South Asian Muslim immigrant, the President’s language and actions have consistently stated that I don’t belong to this country.

 

Question 3: How do you think a Trump win would have affected (v Biden win will affect) the next generation of children around you?

-       WN answer: As Americans we have a strong belief that everyone should have a fair chance at success.  When the President leverages his privileged background unfairly and demonstrates that he is willing to change or break the laws if the outcome he desires does not occur, it demonstrates that he considers himself above the law.  He has had four years to make his case to the American people, and the majority have chosen to reject the case.  Children should know that actions have repercussions.

 

After the conversation, you may not agree with the person, and you may not even understand their point of view.  But if done properly, you will at least have shown respect for them and sent them a message that their experience matters.  Fundamentally, that is what winning graciously means – regardless of the results, we still view each other as important participants to the democratic process.  After a close competition, we pick ourselves up, shake hands, and move on to the next contest.

 

Please do forward any interesting articles you are reading or the results of your conversations.  Also I have posted all previous blogs at the website: www.kkwn.org.  You can also sign others up to receive posts. 

Look forward to hearing from you.

Some thoughts on… Surviving our Democracy

Our communities, the country and the world collectively wait with trepidation for the outcome of the US elections. Regardless of the winning candidate, there will be a large portion of the population that will question the results. The consequence will be protests and confusion, potentially violence.  As a nation, will we survive our democratic process?

 

Three points to consider as we answer this question

 

First, since election results are conducted by state regulatory bodies and votes are counted by counties, essentially, there are 51 independent elections for President running right now.  I was an Election Inspector in Suffolk County yesterday (Sunday) for the last day of early voting in New York state.  I was impressed by the bi-partisan spirit to get people to safely and efficiently cast their votes.  At our site on that day, thousands of people, supporters of both parties, voted in a respectful manner.

 

Almost all state and county election boards have civil servants dedicated to counting votes properly.  Even if US government agencies can indirectly influence the process by creating a negative climate or pushing cases through the courts, there is no Executive office that can directly influence, change or stop the process.  Decentralization is a source of robustness.

 

Second, the legitimacy of the process can be questioned especially if there is a small margin between candidates.  The greater the win by one candidate, the harder it becomes to contest the election on fairness grounds.  All votes matter even in strongly Republican or Democrat states.  New York as a state leans Democrat but Suffolk County has traditionally been a “red” county.  In my informal survey, it seemed that individuals from both parties were checking-in around equal numbers with a lean towards Republicans. People realize that their voice is important.

 

With over 90 million votes already cast in early and mail-in voting nationally, citizens are activated to express their choice, and every one of us has a duty to encourage and help people around us to vote.  More cast ballots can lead to a clearer decision.

 

Finally, whichever party wins, the country will need to mend afterwards as a large part of the population will be disappointed.  Reconciliation will be easier if all the branches of government are sending a similar message, but discord could occur.  This is when we will have to trust the friends, communities and neighbors around us that we have already built, as well as reach out to folks in rival parties. I’m looking forward to working bi-partisan at the polls tomorrow to ensure an equitable process.

 

We will survive our democratic process but it will require individual effort.  We cannot be asleep at the wheel trusting our “system” to work.  Rather we have to empower fellow citizens to keep the good of the country in mind over individual or party affiliations.  All of us can help - report election abuses, encourage police to keep the peace, help people to cast their ballots.

 

So enjoy the election as history is written.  Vote early, cheer on your candidates, and at the end save your energy to heal the country afterwards.  There is still a lot of work that needs to be done.

 

Please do forward any interesting articles you are reading.

Some thoughts on… Fearing a Fall

The current administration came into power by vocalizing the pain that many middle-class Americans are feeling as they lose manufacturing jobs overseas, see real declines in wages, and die from opioid abuse.  In 2016, the voters felt that life was better in an earlier era and somehow the Republican candidate could restore an idealized vision of the US.

 

A number of my students weren’t able to vote four years ago.  So as we near election, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to see how has the US is faring compared to 2016 when the President was elected using measures mostly provided by the US government.  As a management consultant, we had a dashboard of metrics against which we would annually evaluate ourselves.  In that spirit, here’s a potential dashboard for the Executive Branch using social, economic and international metrics.

 

Metric	Description	2016	2020	Info Source
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	Value of goods and services produced. Measures size of economy.	US $37.1 trillion (first 2 quarters)	US $ 41.1 trillion (first 2 quarters)	Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce 3rd quarter data released on Oct 29
Unemployment	Number of  civilians in labor force that are not employed.	7.9 million (Sept 2016)	12.5 million (Sept 2020)	Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor
US Debt	Amount the US Govt owes to other countries and future generations	US $19.8 trillion (as of Oct 20, 2016)	US $27.1 trillion (as of Oct 20, 2020)	US Treasury
Mortality	Excess Deaths compared to average in previous years	0	299,028	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Average Hourly Earnings	Hourly Earnings for employees on private nonfarm payrolls	$25.77	$29.47	US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor
US Image	% of people in other countries who approve of the US	~60%	~40%	Pew Research Center
US Ranking in the World	Global perceptions of country standing based on 65 attributes	#4	#7	US News & World Report

 

 

Using these metrics, a performance evaluation could be as follows: The positives are that overall the economy has grown over the past four years during the tenure of the President, but the relative stagnation of average earnings, implies that most of the economic gain has gone to richer members of society.  The improvements are that Federal mis-management of the pandemic has led to significant number of deaths, high unemployment and an increased burden of debt, i.e. we owe money to other countries and to future generations.  The ultimate impact has been a fall in our standing in the world as viewed by our allies.

 

Metrics not included here are ones describing environmental degradation, racial injustice, rise in hate crimes, humanitarian wrongs, e.g. the number of children separated from their parents at the border. You could come up with your own measures as well.

 

The President came into power riding on a sentiment that the country was in an inferior state compared to a past time, and he could make the country better.  Based on the metrics above, under his tenure the country is worse off.  Another four years, and his policies and leadership could lead to the country falling even further.

 

Perhaps it’s time for the Democrats to reclaim the slogan, let’s “Make America Great Again”.

 

Please do forward any interesting articles you are reading.

Some thoughts on... Counting on Votes

Elections have been a hallmark of the US democracy for over two centuries.  Yet as we head into the November election, the nation is facing a novel set of challenges to voting due to Covid-19.  The pandemic is throwing obstacles to the election process in various ways: 

·      It is harder to conduct voter drives in person to help people register

·      It is harder for people to physically show up at a voting area increasing the need for mail-in ballots

·      It is harder to count ballots in a timely manner as there may be delays in mail delivery and mail receipt

 

Underlying all these new difficulties, is an old problem – there is disagreement on who should be allowed to vote.   If asked people generally agree that every citizen should have the right to vote, nonetheless local, state and federal authorities have created barriers to voting in the past few years in order to exclude certain populations.  These restrictions are:

 

1.     Population Disenfranchisement occurs when officials use precise legislative measures to prevent certain populations from voting.  Examples include:

·      Local governments removing polling booths especially amongst underprivileged African-American communities.

·      States, like North Dakota, implementing laws denying Native American population registration because individuals on reservations do not have a street address.

·      In Florida a constitutional amendment restoring voting rights to ~1.4 million ex-Felons was recently restricted in the 11^th Circuit Court as lawmakers insisted that individuals had to pay all financial court fees before being allowed to vote (essentially a poll tax).  These felons are predominantly people of color. 

·      Gerrymandering at the Federal government level which redraws district lines to benefit certain parties has been used by both parties.  A recent supreme court ruling on this effectively recused courts from ruling on egregious examples and placed the power at state legislative levels to make revisions based on the 2020 census.

 

2.     Voter ID Restrictions prevent citizens from voting if they do not have the correct set of government issued identifications.  They are broad legislative measures, which predominantly impact poorer and rural citizens who do not have the time, financial resource or physical ability to acquire the documents.  The ACLU estimates that about 21 million US citizens may be affected by these restrictions.

 

3.     Finally, Voter Purging laws remove registered voters from the voting lists because of inactivity in recent years.  Governor Brian Kemp effectively used this tool from 2012-2018 in Georgia by removing about 1.4 million voters and helping him win the governorship over Stacey Abrams.

 

As we all think of ways to help the elections this year, here are a few things that I am doing.

 

1.     Talking to people I interact with at work or personally and make sure they are aware on how to register to vote.  I am also talking to individuals who I infrequently interact with, e.g. housekeepers, trainers.  If they need help and have on-line access, I send them these links to walk them through the process: IWillVote.com or Vote.gov

 

2.     Depending on party affiliation, you can find sites that encourage voter outreach.  I signed up with Vote Forwardto send letters to individual voters.  

 

3.     On election day, I have signed up to work at my polling station in Suffolk County.  Go to your county election site to find out how to do this.   If you live in New York City you can use this site.

 

Finally, if you or someone you know is facing registration or voter suppression, here’s a guide on what to do.  You can also call 1-866-OUR-VOTE or 1-888-VE-Y-VOTA (en Español) to ask for help.

 

As we race towards the climax of our current drama in November, let’s hope that all citizens have a voice on the composition of our leadership.

 

Please do forward any interesting articles you are reading.