Saturday, November 14, 2009

Some thoughts on… Defying Augury

Obama wins the Nobel Prize for Peace – and despite his enormous self-confidence is overwhelmed and takes the accolade with humility. Alfred Nobel intended the prize to be awarded to someone who “during the preceding year [...] shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”

This honor is high recognition for a first-year President, and the announcement is met with mixed review – it is too early in his career; he has not demonstrated enough. Conservatives receive fresh fodder to throw trash in his direction.

But, why shouldn’t Obama receive the Peace Prize for the promise that he holds?

In the recent production of Hamlet on Broadway, Jude Law brings a swarthy swagger to the role. His Hamlet is more a predator, a crouching jaguar ready to spring, rather than an intellectual with great diction. Law’s stance with his hips slightly askance propels Hamlet’s thuggish nature – a man looking for a fight. The murder of his father, the king, by his uncle inflames Hamlet but he is unable to act. He wants to fight, but trepidation of death tempers his fury resulting in inaction.

After near-escapes from death, towards the end of the play, he articulates in one of his famous monologues that he will “defy augury”. Recognizing that death is inevitable and that knowing when it will come provides minimal insight, he quells his fear of challenging his uncle, the new king, and puts behind his own prediction that he will die in the process. The epiphany readies him to live fully the life that he is leading and to take action against his uncle rather than wait on the sidelines.

In an interview this week at Columbia University which was broadcast on CNBC, Bill Gates and Warren Buffett discussed their belief in the US system of capitalism and the promise of the future. The two are the richest men in the world and are products of the uniquely American system. Gates’ success at Microsoft was driven by a passion so strong for software programming that he left Harvard to start his own company. The organization that he literally built from scratch has become one of the most transformative companies of the past few decades.

In the past ten years, this passion has been complemented by compassion to create the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation dedicated to the belief that every life on Earth has equal value. The Foundation’s unheralded approach to improving education in the US and curing the diseases of the poorest populations – malaria, TB, diarrhea – demonstrates that shocks to the conventional approach of curing diseases may result in dramatic results. The impact on global health of their investments may not be seen for another decade, but they are challenging the prognostications that some diseases are just incurable.

The Gates Foundation is a glimmer of hope to resolving the toughest health issues of the planet, and the true hero of this story is Warren Buffet. Using principles of “value investing”, Mr. Buffet has amassed a fortune by betting on companies for the long-term rather than relying on market fads or illusory signals of corporate strength. His judgment has brought great riches to himself and the shareholders of his company Berkshire-Hathaway. His ethical and intelligent approach to business transactions alongside his humble, self-deprecating wit are hallmarks of his style of business – a sharp contrast to the greed-driven, poor decision-making that led to the financial crisis.

A mark of this style was his gift of over $30 billion to the Gates Foundation three years ago, which doubled the size of the foundation and accounted for a vast proportion of Buffet’s wealth. Rather than provide the money to his children and grand-children, he decided instead to support the world’s population, giving Bill and Melinda Gates control and responsibility of his fortune. No large buildings dedicated with his name; no grand galas proclaiming his charitable contributions – a self-effacing gesture of generosity.

People say we can’t reward the Peace Prize for intentions – but why should we not when the intentions are well-guided and true.

Many of us are scared to reward people on potential because it’s difficult to discern who really will be the winners. But it’s critical for us to award and praise people who are trying to defy the conventional wisdom. These people are going against the prognostications that demand only incremental change can happen. The point is not that these people will actually make changes but that they have readied themselves and tried to change the system. The act of defiance is better than not doing anything at all. Let’s reward those that are trying to make a difference – regardless of whether their efforts bear fruit.

Obama like these other individuals– Hamlet, Gates, Buffett – is showing readiness, compassion, humility and passion in his approach to promoting peace in the world. It’s not just the end result but the trying in the face of uncertain victory. Let’s “value invest” in a man that defies the augury of a jaded world population which believes nothing can be done to change the ways of the past.

November 14, 2009